What a marvellous blog (long and luxurious) of which this is a perfect example. http://justifiedbelief.com/2013/10/15/hypothetical-reasoning-disjunctive-inference/ The answer, by the way is to recognise 'contrivance'. The question is logical, designed to get you reasoning, but it is abstracted from lived experience. In other words, they are setting you up to think "front brain" rationally for a... Continue Reading →